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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

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