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Energy analysts have shown significant skepticism regarding bullish predictions that US energy majors will swiftly invest vast sums of dollars to fix the country's dilapidated energy sector.

Demand for Absolute Protections

Without an absolute assurance of financial backing from the Washington, analysts expect international firms to act with significant hesitation.

“It is hasty to discuss any upcoming plans,” a representative stated this weekend.

The ambitious timeframe of less than 18 months has been publicly proposed. Yet, realistic assessments paint a different picture.

A Likely Timeline

“It is likely going to take multiple years for any significant output increase,” commented an chief investment officer.

He suggested oil companies would likely spend:

• Year one: Securing new regulatory frameworks.
• The second year: Beginning overhaul of facilities.
• Year three: Starting to meaningfully increase production.

This suggests an increase of around 500,000 barrels per day maybe by the end of the decade.

Appetite Compared to Willingness for Investment

Experts make a important separation between firms' attention and their appetite to invest heavily.

“I think their attention is an eight, on a scale of one to 10. However, their willingness is a mid-range score, because there is no clarity yet.”

Seasoned operators in the region echo this sentiment. The thinking is that firms will publicly call it fantastic while privately acting with extreme caution.

The Vast Price Tag

The required outlay would be vast. Independent projections suggest that adding between 500,000 and a million bpd would require over $10 billion in capital spending over several years.

However, rebuilding output to previous levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a monumental $80 billion to $90 billion over many more years.

The Pending Question of Federal Guarantees

The idea of oil giants being reimbursed by the federal government has been often mentioned. But, formal assurances on this proposal have not yet been provided.

Without a solid plan is the primary factor for the sector's hesitation. Operators seek protection against nationalization and the possibility that a subsequent government could cancel any agreement.

“You need to be protected from political change, that we’ve seen in Venezuela already.”

Ultimately, while political confidence runs high, the practical realities suggest a road of slow deliberation for potential large-scale venture in the country's energy industry.