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China has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past remote Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.