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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."